For the budget numbers--check these Summary Tables (22 pages) from the OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT & BUDGET--to work out on federal revenue projections, economic growth would have to be 3.5 percent in 2010, 5 percent in 2011 and 6 percent in 2012. Historically, 3 percent has been viewed as a respectable number. I spent a year (1982) as an assistant to the chief staff economist of the Senate Budget Committee, where I learned how all--yes, all--budget numbers are easily altered by the zillions. Simply make convenient assumptions about economic growth, interest rates, unemployment and inflation. Small changes have vast budgetary impact--up to hundreds of billions. During the 25-year Long Boom (1983 - 2008), with only two brief recessions, with a Global Goldilocks Economy for most of a decade (1996 - 2006), the economy rarely grew above 4 percent annually, never topped 5 percent; most good growth years were in the 3 percent range. Assume an absurdly high economic growth number, and Sha-Zam!--your budget woes are over. The economic growth numbers are simply off the charts. The WSJ editors detail more budget fantasies (with different growth numbers), and note that government spending as a share of GDP will rise to the highest level, by far, since 1945, when World War II ended.
What explains this? I think it is that for 44 economic recovery is subordinate as a goal to transforming America--health care, education, renewable energy substitution for fossil fuels. If 44 can get his program voted in by even a narrow partisan margin, he can create constituencies for the new programs that will be hard to dislodge, even if the GOP retakes Congress in 2010. 44 can veto GOP votes to overturn his program. If 44 loses come 2012, without 60 solid GOP senators to override a Democratic filibuster, 44's program would still survive. Maybe 44 prefers a one-term transformational presidency to a two-term rock-star turn.
Oh, 44 is continuing one custom of his predecessors: earmarks, of which there are 8,570 in his budget. Eliminating earmarks, it seems, is too transformational, even for 44.
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