Iraq. President Obama's Camp LeJeune Address was eloquent in tone and sound in policy. He gave highest praise to his audience of Marines, with sincerity and grace. He is keeping enough troops in the country for satisfy his military commanders, and withdrawal is expressly premised upon endorsement by commanders that the situation permits withdrawal. His praise for the people of Iraq was warm, genuine, and impressive. But his broader Mideast policy--appeasing the Palestinians, staying within the UN regarding Iran, engaging Syria without preconditions for Syrian cessation of support for terrorists like Hezbollah, who control much of Lebanon and destroyed the democratic 2005 Cedar Revolution----might undermine the resolute signals he sent Friday.
One thing President 44 might have done, to show real class: Acknowledge that the victory is now proclaims in Iraq was made possible by President Bush 43's courageous decision to push the surge strategy in December 2006, at the very nadir of our fortunes there, with ignominious, disastrous defeat staring us in the face and jihadi jubilant worldwide--supported by John McCain, Joe Lieberman and few others, defying the defeatist surrender recommendation of the Iraq Study Group, and ardently opposed by Barack Obama. He'd have gotten credit for being classy, at no cost to his standing with most voters. Instead, as Karl Rove wrote Friday in a crisp accounting, 44 takes every chance to bash his predecessor, and resorts to straw-man tropes by the dozen. Rove's op-ed neatly sums things up.
Intel. Read in full foreign policy maven Gabriel Schoenfeld's WSJ op-ed on Chas Freeman and discover how awful 44's choice to head the National Intelligence Council is. Not only did Mr. Chas Freeman bash Israel for 40 years of "brutality" towards the Palestinians--he blames Israel for the lack of Arab-Israeli peace, fittingly for the head of a pro-Arab group funded by the Saudis--he even defends the Beijing regime's 1989 massacre at Tienanmen Square. The NIC produces our National Intelligence Estimates, like the politicized NIE that exonerated Iran's nuclear program in late 2007 and thus paralyzed America's Iran policy for about one year. Expect more such bum intel if Freeman has his way.
Hillary. Meanwhile, Bob Tyrrell catches Hillary's latest "listening tour" and finds that on her first overseas trip she acted like--and was treated like--a low-rent celebrity, answering giggly questions and hitting TV shows. But that is mere fluff compared to Hillary blasting Israel over Gaza in a move that astonished Jewish leaders who thought Hillary as Secretary of State would be as pro-Israel as she was when Senator from New York. Hill, we hardly knew ye....
Henry. On the sober side of policy, Henry Kissinger analyzes Afghanistan's perils and offers a tour of the plus and minus points of the compass. Well worth, as always, a read.
Iran. Turn to Iran's imminent nuclear endgame for which we are utterly unprepared--unless 44's plan to trade Polish-Czech missile defense for Russian "help" on Iran's nuclear program counts as preparation. Iran now has 5,400 of the 6,000 high-speed centrifuges it aims to deploy, and expects its Bushehr reactor to be running in 2009. It hoodwinked the UN's IAEA inspectors, and recently launched a satellite. But there is more in this excellent op-ed. Here are the last paragraphs--very interesting ones, at that:
American oil vulnerability in recent months has escalated precisely because of oil's precipitous drop to $35 to $40 a barrel. At that price, America's number one supplier, Canada, which supplies some 2 million out of 20 million barrels of oil a day, cannot afford to produce. Canadian oil sand petroleum is not viable below $70 a barrel. Much of Canada's supply has already been cancelled or indefinitely postponed. America's strategic petroleum reserve can only keep that country moving for approximately 57 days.
The Obama Administration, like the Bush administration before it, has developed no plan or contingency legislation for an oil interruption, such as a surge in retrofitting America's 250 million gas guzzling cars and trucks - each with a 10-year life - or a stimulus of the alternate fuel production needed to rapidly get off oil. Ironically, Iran has undertaken such a crash program converting some 20% of its gasoline fleet yearly to compressed natural gas (CNG) as a countermeasure to Western nuclear sanctions against the Teheran regime that could completely block the flow of gasoline to Iran. Iran has no refining capability.
The question of when and how this endgame will play out is not known by anyone. Israeli leaders wish to avoid military preemption at all costs if possible. But many feel the military moment must come; and when that moment does come, it will be swift, highly technologic and in the twinkling of an eye. But as one informed official quipped, "Those who know, don't talk. Those who talk, don't know."
Ace diplomat John Bolton offers four pointers on Iran for Team 44: (1) negotiations alone will not stop Iran's nuclear program; (2) Syria, Hezbollah & Hamas pose problems related to & inseparable from Iran; (3) Iran is not a legitimate player in Iraqi affairs, has a weak hand & thus should be excluded; (4) Iran has no incentive to help us in Afghanistan. Look for token gestures from Iran, enough to keep us in thrall, hook, line & sinker.
Durban II. Let's end this tour d'horizon on an up note: The Obama administration has decided to boycott the UN's April 2009 "Durban II" conference, intended as a follow-on anti-Semitic, anti-Israel hate-fest successor to the "Durban I" conference held shortly before 9/11/01.
Stay tuned.
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