Mark Steyn, ever sharp, explains in a crisp op-ed that conservatives are at a structural political disadvantage versus the Left, because they cannot consistently muster constituent passion for smaller government, as the Left can for more government. Steyn argues that the Right must, nonetheless, not move to the Center, but move the Center towards the Right, by making principled arguments.
Bill Kristol advances a "5 Ds program for the GOP: Debt, Defense, Diplomacy, Detention, Docs. Well said.
David Frum sees dangerous & bad change in Team Obama's vision of America. In a nutshell, Team Obama is undermining the foundation of legal contractual rights in pursuit of its political goals and on behalf of its political supporters. In addition to the Chrysler mess (LFTC covered this last week) we have now, Frum notes, the latest example: Threatening California with loss of $8.6B in federal funds unless gov. Terminator rescinds a proposed $74M pay cut for unionized home care workers.
If Steyn, Kristol & Frum are right, as I think both are, that makes the GOP need to put front and center a figure with the national stature and ability to articulate a compelling vision, as the best candidate for 2012. It is not the kiddie corps of talented GOP under-50 leaders--Governors Sarah Palin (AK), Bobby Jindal (LA); Representatives Eric Cantor (VA), Paul Ryan (WI), Mike Pence (AR)--who should take on Team 44 in 2012. Barring catastrophe, very possible but hardly inevitable, Obama will be hard to beat come 2012. He is an icon, adored by mainstream media, and faces a badly discredited opposition.
Which suggests that the logical candidate pool for 2012 is not younger comers, who can bide their time and season themselves further in the meantime--raise funds for fellow GOP candidates, as Ronald Reagan did during the 1970s; hone their message and deepen knowledge of issues outside their areas of strength; extend their already impressive career accomplishments.
Look, then, to the over-60 set for 2012. They have one more shot at the brass ring. The failure of the Dole (age 73) & McCain (age 72) candidacies suggests that the American public prefers a candidate who takes office before turning 70 (Reagan turned 70 three weeks after taking the oath of office). Mitt Romney, with his expertise on economic matters, could be one, if he can show himself able to build a broad base among GOP factions, and appeal to Independent voters. Mitch Daniels, a successful governor of Indiana and former chief of the Office of Management & Budget, has the resume but lacks national visibility.
Which leaves former Speaker Newt Gingrich. His travails of the mid-1990s are ancient history, and Americans famously love second-act comebacks. He has been all over the talk shows, and talks issues better than anyone in his party: principled, intellectually coherent, historical perspective, detailed factual grasp of the full spectrum of issues. He has two shortcomings. First, he has never run a large organization, but neither has 44 nor had McCain (save his brief post-Vietnam squadron command stint). And Newt does have a tendency at times to toss out ideas so fast that listener may not be able to follow; this is fixable if with his maturity in the national spotlight he applies discipline.
Bottom Line. Newt alone can frame issues in a compelling fashion, and has nothing to lose by taking what will be his last chance to win the White House. Let the kiddie corps wait and grow. Let Newt go for it come 2012.
Comments