The New York Times report on the draft agreement reached in Vienna between Iran and negotiators acknowledges that Iran would be delayed a year in making a nuclear bomb only if: (a) it does not have undeclared stocks of enriched uranium; (b) timing of the agreement is critical (no pun intended):
The energy agency’s experts said Iran would have too little fuel on hand to build a nuclear weapon for roughly a year after a shipment to Russia. But if the 2,600 pounds of fuel was shipped out of Iran in small batches instead of all at once, the experts warn, Iran would be able to replace it with new fuel almost as quickly as it leaves the country.
Also of concern is the possibility that Iran might have more nuclear fuel in its stockpile than it is letting on. The agency’s estimate that it has 3,500 pounds of low-enriched uranium “assumes that Iran has accurately declared how much fuel it possesses, and does not have a secret supply,” as one senior European diplomat put it on the sidelines of negotiations in Vienna.
Ultimately, Mr. Obama would have to get Iran to agree to give up the enrichment process as well. Otherwise, the fuel taken out of circulation in the draft accord would soon be replaced.
The Times article asserts that because Russia will return the 1,200 kilos (2,600 pounds) of enriched uranium (medical grade--19.75 percent, far higher than 3.5 percent commercial enriched fuel) in the form of metal rods the product cannot be diverted into nuclear weapon fuel. I will seek verification on this technical point, and post an answer in a future LFTC. (In all, Iran has 1,600 kilos--3,500 pounds--of enriched uranium.)
Another New York Times piece explores the "generational chasm" between the young and elderly in Iran. The problem is that the regime change that might bring younger, liberal leaders to power has been undermined by Team Obama's flaccid temporizing since the June 12 elections. As only regime change can secure the future for Iran as a peaceful Mideast power, only rapid change can save the day. But the regime will not give in easily. One son of a Revolutionary Guard member, the Times story notes, was tortured to death after protesting the June election, as step which his father defends, as needed to protect the regime.
Bottom Line. In chess a gambit is the sacrifice of one or more pieces to gain advantage in longer term position. If, as is likely, Iran has clandestine, undisclosed facilities enriching uranium, the Vienna accord would buy Iran precious diplomatic time and freeze Israel's military option. As the mullahs' Iran has never kept any agreement it has made there is no reason to anticipate that they will honor this one. Only regime change will prevent Iran from nuclear weapons and regional hegemony. The clock keeps ticking, and time is on Iran's side.
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