As the long-awaited Geneva talks convene today between the "P 5+1" (5 Permanent Members of the UN Security Council--US, UK, France, Russia, China--plus Germany, negotiating with Iran, several considerations should be kept in mind.
First, as Michael Ledeen reminds us in a Wall Street Journal op-ed, American administrations have been talking to the Iranians frequentlysince the February 1979 accession to power of the Islamic regime. This includes several meetings during the Bush years, in 2006, 2007 & 2008, some barely noticed at the time. Second, a top nuclear proliferation expert & a leading Iran watcher detail how complex the permutations are of containing Iran's nuclear programand monitoring its progress. They think it highly likely that Iran has several other undeclared nuclear sites, else it could not enrich uranium rapidly enough to suit its strategic aims.
Third, a Washington Post report sees China too much in need of oil from Iran to join in serious sanctions; worse, Iran, once an importer of 40 percent of its refined oil, now imports only 25 percent, aided by new refining capacity and domestic stockpiling. It is thus far less vulnerable than it was even two years ago.
Finally, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon says that the latest disclosure of Iranian duplicity puts the burden squarely on Iran to prove they are not violating the Nonproliferation Treaty and applicable UN sanctions. Ban has now talked the talk; whether he can walk the walk....
Bottom Line. Iran appears prepared to stonewall the Geneva conference. Whether the allied nations can rouse themselves to impose sanctions outside the UN, thus bypassing a Russian veto or Chinese behind-the-scenes sabotage, is dubious at best. Stay tuned.
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