Tuesday's Message to Both Parties. THE CENTER RULES. Politics maven Jay Cost cautions that election returns ought generally be interpreted narrowly, and that if voters perceive a politician to have failed to perform no amount of political hocus-pocus will save the day. Just ask Jon Corzine. Dan Henninger gets it, in a brilliant column that is a must-read. Put simply, the new norm is volatility, with voters distrusting both parties:
Welcome to the permanent American tea party.
You will recall how when the tea-party movement erupted during the congressional recess in August, it was spun on the left that these events were the creation of conservative ideologues. At the start, yes. By the end, though, it was about anxieties deeper than that.
The GOP is now spinning the results in Virginia and New Jersey as proof that voters are fed up with the liberal ideologues in the White House and Congress. Yes, but it's deeper than that.
What was learned Tuesday is that the American voter is absolutely, totally, unremittingly disgusted with both political parties. More than anything, the American voter is desperate for political leadership.
That electorates in two politically significant states, led by the widening independent movement, could swing within one year from enthusiasm for electing Barack Obama to support for Virginia's OK Republican Bob McDonnell and New Jersey's lackluster Chris Christie is simply astonishing.
One lesson from Tuesday' vote that the GOP core must heed: Grassroots activism must touch issues near & dear to voters in order to succeed. Fighting over who is a real Republican or seeking a national mandate will backfire, as it did in NY State's 23rd Congressional District. A Democrat has the seat for the first time since...the 1870s--not a misprint, the 1870s.
As for the Democrats, Karl Rove noted that Governor-Elect Bob McDonnell's 18-point winning margin was the largest in modern Virginia history. He also swept into office every statewide candidate. Rove also writes today in his WSJ weekly column that a 5-point swing in 2010 towards the GOP would spell disaster for Democrats. Rove applies those numbers to 2008's results:
Even a five-point swing in 2010 could bring a tidal wave of change. Today, Democrats enjoy 60 votes in the Senate, Republicans a mere 40. Had there been a five-point swing away from Democrats last fall, the party would have started this year with 54 seats and the Republicans 46.
A five-point shift in 2006 would have left the GOP in control of the House. In 2008, a five-point shift would have produced a Democratic loss of six House seats rather than a gain of 21. It would also have put John McCain into the White House with 279 Electoral College votes to Mr. Obama's 259.
Byron York canvassed issues and found health care behind jobs and the economy as a voter issue. If the Democrats wish to lose the House next year and seats in the Senate and the Presidency in 2012, they will take this advice from Markos Moulitsas of Daily Kos: spurn bipartisanship in favor of liberal orthodoxy, or the base will stay home.
Michael Barone sees the union agenda as the biggest loser in Tuesday's tally. He notes that unions comprise only 8 percent of private-sector workers and thus are predominantly public employees. And worse for Democrats, voters are on to this:
The unions' unprecedented political push in 2008 has not been unnoticed by the voters. Mr. Corzine's cozy relationship with public employee union heads proved a liability in New Jersey, and in Virginia Mr. McDonnell campaigned hard against card check and the Obama agenda. The Gallup organization reports that Americans are less pro-union than they have been at any time since it first started asking the question in 1936. Maybe around the country union members will start asking their leaders what they have gotten for all the money they've spent on politics.
NANCY PELOSI, IN A SURREAL "LSD MOMENT," DECLARED VICTORY BASED UPON THE NYS CD 23rd RACE, DISSING LOSING TWO KEY GOVERNORSHIPS. Dennis Miller said last night that Nancy has "a sub-reptilian intellect....She could lose a game of tic-tac-toe to an amoeba." (UH-OH: the ASPCA--American Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Amoebas--may well lodge a formal protest.)
Looking to 2010, ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina announced her candidacy for the California Senate seat now held by Barbara Boxer; CF must first win the GOP primary. If she succeeds she could join eBay founder-CEO Meg Whitman on the Golden State 2010 ballot; MW is running for the governorship.
Dick Morris & spouse Eileen McGann say that ObamaCare is now dead. They note that more than 80 Democratic Members of the House and more than 20 Democratic Senators come from jurisdictions John McCain carried in 2008. They also note that victor Bob McDonnell edged out his 2009 opponent, Creigh Deeds, by a few tenths of a percentage point in their previous race, for Virginia Attorney-General.
Bottom Line. America is a center country, tilting a tad right or left depending upon time & circumstance. Voters trust neither party. Performance on substance rules the day. Neither party's ideology matters much. Fail to perform, and you will be out.
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