LFTC - Letter From The Capitol

LFTC - Index 10/6/09

5 posts: (1) IRAN: Nuclear Warhead Breakout?--Us v. Them; (2) GOP Health Care Plan: Choice & Cost Trump Coverage--The Home Front; (3) House Defends Israel, Rebuffs UN--Us v. Them; (4) China's Father of Rocketry Passes--Us v. Them; (5) Berlin + 20: Reagan Foundation Live Streamed Webcast Airs Today--Us v. Them.

LFTC - IRAN: Nuclear Warhead Breakout?

The Guardian UK reports that Iran may well have tested an advanced nuclear warhead design.  The design is far more advanced than Iran was thought ot have been working on.  The US believes Iran stopped warhead design in 2003, but France & Germany disagree, as surely does Israel.  The Guardian offered this summary:

The UN's nuclear watchdog has asked Iran to explain evidence suggesting that Iranian scientists have experimented with an advanced nuclear warhead design, the Guardian has learned.

The very existence of the technology, known as a "two-point implosion" device, is officially secret in both the US and Britain, but according to previously unpublished documentation in a dossier compiled by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iranian scientists may have tested high-explosive components of the design. The development was today described by nuclear experts as "breathtaking" and has added urgency to the effort to find a diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear crisis.

The sophisticated technology, once mastered, allows for the production of smaller and simpler warheads than older models. It reduces the diameter of a warhead and makes it easier to put a nuclear warhead on a missile.

The entire article merits a close read.  Also read this account of Iranian pro-US anti-regime protests in Tehran on the Nov. 4 hostage anniversary. Warhead advances make regime change more imperative than ever.  How to wake President Obama up on this is an increasingly urgent question.

Bottom Line.  All along the assumption of American intelligence has been that Iran has a long way to go to be able to put a nuclear warhead on a missile.  The Guardian story suggests that Iran is years ahead of where our intelligence agencies think it is.

LFTC - GOP Health Care Plan: Choice & Cost Trump Coverage

On Wednesday the GOP introduced its own health care proposal, in the form of an amendment to H.R. 3962, the Affordable Health Care for America Act, introduced October 29, 2009 by the Democratic leadership.  (The link is to Rep. Louise Slaughter's statement re the bill--you can download the full text from the link, but it may choke your Internet connection & freeze your computer, as it did mine.)  Here is the Congressional Budget Office analysis of the GOP substitute.  It is projected to cost $61 billion over 10 years, perhaps 1/16th of the Democratic bill and perhaps 1/25th of what the Democratic bill would cost if promised savings do not materialize--such as $400B - $500B Medicare cuts.

Add to the cost of PelosiCare that her bill contains provisions partially repealing the indexation of tax rates on dividends & capital gains, a protection against inflation that has survived more than 20 years.  The WSJ editors supply details--in a piece that should be read in full:

The Pelosi-Obama health tax surcharge will have a similar effect. The tax would begin in 2011 on income above $500,000 for singles and $1 million for joint filers. Assuming a 4% annual inflation rate over the next decade, that $500,000 for an individual tax filer would hit families with the inflation-adjusted equivalent of an income of about $335,000 by 2020. After 20 years without indexing, the surcharge threshold would be roughly $250,000.

And by the way, this surcharge has also been sneakily written to apply to modified adjusted gross income, which means it applies to both capital gains and dividends that are taxed at lower rates. So the capital gains tax rate that is now 15% would increase in 2011 to 25.4% with the surcharge and repeal of the Bush tax rates. The tax rate on dividends would rise to 45% from 15% (5.4% plus the pre-Bush rate of 39.6%).

As for the business payroll penalty, it is imposed on a sliding scale beginning at a 2% rate for firms with payrolls of $500,000 and rising to 8% on firms with payrolls above $750,000. But those amounts are also not indexed for inflation, so again assuming a 4% average inflation rate in 10 years this range would hit payrolls between $335,000 and $510,000 in today's dollars. Note that in pitching this "pay or play" tax today, Democrats claim that most small businesses would be exempt. But because it isn't indexed, this tax will whack more and more businesses every year. The sales pitch is pure deception.

Broadly speaking the GOP alternative to the Democrats' 2000-page monstrosity focuses on tort reform, insurance reform--federalizing regulation to eliminate state impediments--cafeteria choice akin to the plan Congress enjoys, all at a cost that is a fraction of the Democratic proposals.  The major concession to fiscal reality is not mandating universal coverage--which youths do not need, save for catastrophic care.  Rep. John Shadegg (R-AZ) details how state regulations mandating dubious benefit coverage push up health insurance costs.

SPECIAL 9:30 AM ADDITION: FRIDAY'S ANNOUNCED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE OF 10.2 PERCENT IS THE HIGHEST SINCE 1983.  THIS WILL NOT HELP NANCY PELOSI IN ROUNDING UP WAVERING DEMOCRATS FOR SATURDAY'S VOTE ON THE HOUSE DEMOCRAT HEALTH CARE BILL.

Bottom Line.  The GOP plan is far better, in that it is affordable, choice-friendly (N.B., many youths are uninsured by choice) and targets lawyers, whose tort suits comprise as much as one-tenth of the nation's $2.5 TR annual health care bill.  The bill cannot pass a Democratic Congress, let alone would 44 sign it.  What it can do is set up a debate for 2010.

LFTC - House Defends Israel, Rebuffs UN

On Tuesday, while voters went to the polls, the House of Representatives passed H.R. 867, defending Israel's conduct during the Gaza War and rejecting the UN's Goldstone Report that condemned Israel and largely exonerated Hamas.  Read the entire Resolution, but savor one of its five final zingers:

(1) considers the `Report of the United Nations Fact Finding Mission on the Gaza Conflict' to be irredeemably biased and unworthy of further consideration or legitimacy.

AMEN.

LFTC - China's Father of Rocketry Passes

The Los Angeles Times reports that China's father of rocket & missile technology passed away at age 98.  The LA Times obit is interesting, as the scientist was deported in 1955 on suspicion of pro-Communist sympathies.  Opinion is split on whether his loyalty was legitimately in question, determination of which is a vexing, difficult exercise in which mistakes are often made.  In the event, the exile vented his anger in revenge, in guiding Beijing's entry into the space age--and ICBM age too.

LFTC: Berlin + 20: Reagan Foundation Live Streamed Webcast Today

The Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation's Live November 6, 2009 Berlin conference will be live-streamed over the Web.  Here is the website link for the RRPF Berlin Conference webcast, which will begin 7:30 AM PST (10:30 AM EST); it ends 10 hours later, at 5:30 PM PST (8:30 PM EST).  Enjoy.

LFTC - Index 11/5/09

5 posts: (1) Election 2009: Follow-Up--The Home Front; (2) Energy: All Hail for "Shale Gale"!--"It's the Earth Stupid!; (3) Military Marvel: Gorgon Aloft--Us v. Them; (4) Military Mess: 1,300 Satellites Aloft--:It's the Earth Stupid!"; (5) A Hero Meets the Odds--Us v. Them.

LFTC - Election 2009 Follow-Up

Tuesday's Message to Both Parties.  THE CENTER RULES.  Politics maven Jay Cost cautions that election returns ought generally be interpreted narrowly, and that if voters perceive a politician to have failed to perform no amount of political hocus-pocus will save the day.  Just ask Jon Corzine.  Dan Henninger gets it, in a brilliant column that is a must-read.  Put simply, the new norm is volatility, with voters distrusting both parties:

Welcome to the permanent American tea party.

You will recall how when the tea-party movement erupted during the congressional recess in August, it was spun on the left that these events were the creation of conservative ideologues. At the start, yes. By the end, though, it was about anxieties deeper than that.

The GOP is now spinning the results in Virginia and New Jersey as proof that voters are fed up with the liberal ideologues in the White House and Congress. Yes, but it's deeper than that.

What was learned Tuesday is that the American voter is absolutely, totally, unremittingly disgusted with both political parties. More than anything, the American voter is desperate for political leadership.

That electorates in two politically significant states, led by the widening independent movement, could swing within one year from enthusiasm for electing Barack Obama to support for Virginia's OK Republican Bob McDonnell and New Jersey's lackluster Chris Christie is simply astonishing.

One lesson from Tuesday' vote that the GOP core must heed: Grassroots activism must touch issues near & dear to voters in order to succeed.  Fighting over who is a real Republican or seeking a national mandate will backfire, as it did in NY State's 23rd Congressional District.  A Democrat has the seat for the first time since...the 1870s--not a misprint, the 1870s.

As for the Democrats, Karl Rove noted that Governor-Elect Bob McDonnell's 18-point winning margin was the largest in modern Virginia history.  He also swept into office every statewide candidate.  Rove also writes today in his WSJ weekly column that a 5-point swing in 2010 towards the GOP would spell disaster for Democrats.  Rove applies those numbers to 2008's results:

Even a five-point swing in 2010 could bring a tidal wave of change. Today, Democrats enjoy 60 votes in the Senate, Republicans a mere 40. Had there been a five-point swing away from Democrats last fall, the party would have started this year with 54 seats and the Republicans 46.

A five-point shift in 2006 would have left the GOP in control of the House. In 2008, a five-point shift would have produced a Democratic loss of six House seats rather than a gain of 21. It would also have put John McCain into the White House with 279 Electoral College votes to Mr. Obama's 259.

Byron York canvassed issues and found health care behind jobs and the economy as a voter issue.  If the Democrats wish to lose the House next year and seats in the Senate and the Presidency in 2012, they will take this advice from Markos Moulitsas of Daily Kos: spurn bipartisanship in favor of liberal orthodoxy, or the base will stay home.

Michael Barone sees the union agenda as the biggest loser in Tuesday's tally.  He notes that unions comprise only 8 percent of private-sector workers and thus are predominantly public employees.  And worse for Democrats, voters are on to this:

The unions' unprecedented political push in 2008 has not been unnoticed by the voters. Mr. Corzine's cozy relationship with public employee union heads proved a liability in New Jersey, and in Virginia Mr. McDonnell campaigned hard against card check and the Obama agenda. The Gallup organization reports that Americans are less pro-union than they have been at any time since it first started asking the question in 1936. Maybe around the country union members will start asking their leaders what they have gotten for all the money they've spent on politics.

NANCY PELOSI, IN A SURREAL "LSD MOMENT," DECLARED VICTORY BASED UPON THE NYS CD 23rd RACE, DISSING LOSING TWO KEY GOVERNORSHIPS.  Dennis Miller said last night that Nancy has "a sub-reptilian intellect....She could lose a game of tic-tac-toe to an amoeba."  (UH-OH: the ASPCA--American Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Amoebas--may well lodge a formal protest.)

Looking to 2010, ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina announced her candidacy for the California Senate seat now held by Barbara Boxer; CF must first win the GOP primary.  If she succeeds she could join eBay founder-CEO Meg Whitman on the Golden State 2010 ballot; MW is running for the governorship. 

Dick Morris & spouse Eileen McGann say that ObamaCare is now dead.  They note that more than 80 Democratic Members of the House and more than 20 Democratic Senators come from jurisdictions John McCain carried in 2008.  They also note that victor Bob McDonnell edged out his 2009 opponent, Creigh Deeds, by a few tenths of a percentage point in their previous race, for Virginia Attorney-General.

Bottom Line.  America is a center country, tilting a tad right or left depending upon time & circumstance.  Voters trust neither party.  Performance on substance rules the day.  Neither party's ideology matters much.  Fail to perform, and you will be out.

LFTC - Energy: All Hail for "Shale Gale"!

Two energy mavens tout oil shale as America's next big energy frontier.  advances in extractive technologies have boosted shale's estimated share of natural gas production in America from 10 percent in 1990 to 40 percent today.  there will be more shale in our future, to our great benefit.

LFTC - Military Marvel: Gorgon Aloft

The third advance in drones is taking center stage in 2010: the "Gorgon Stare" model of the MQ-9 Reaper, augmenting the Predator & Reaper drones now in use.  In all the US Air Force now files 38 drones, up from 6 in 2006 and aiming at 50 in 2011.  Going beyond identifying single targets, Gorgon Stare will enable 24/7 pattern-of-life surveillance, initially covering 1.5 square miles, then in 2011 doubling to 3 square miles.  Such surveillance can yield vital information about local unit structures, who is commanding, what kinds of actions are underway, etc.

LFTC - Military Mess: 1,300 Satellites Aloft

The Pentagon is monitoring 1,300 orbiting satellites (800 are maneuverable) for collision risk.  Orbiting junk now totals 20,000 items, including rocket boosters and other useless junk; this is up from 14,000 just a few years ago.  Makes one wonder, what with more nations looking to launch payloads, if soon space will supplant the Long Island Expressway as what New Yorkers call "the world's largest parking lot."

LFTC - A Hero Meets the Odds

Sad news this week: Britain's top bomb disposal expert was killed by an IED in Afghanistan--on his last mission before he was to take a planned leave after five months in theater.  He had successfully disarmed 64 Taliban IEDs, including an astonishing 31 in a single 24-hour period.  Staff Sergeant Olav "Oz" Schmid  was all of 30 years old, and left behind a widow and stepson.  LFTC readers who did not see "The Hurt Locker" (2008), the gritty, realistic about American soldiers disarming bombs in Iraq, should rent the film.

LFTC - Index 11/4/09

4 posts: (1) Election 2009 (+ 2010 Bonus)--The Home Front; (2) IRAN: 30th "America Held Hostage" Anniversary--Us v. Them; (3) North Korea Makes Another Nuke--Us v. Them; (4) Russia's Latest Nuclear Power Play--Us v. Them.

LFTC - Election 2009 (+ 2010 Bonus)

2009.  In the nation's two gubernatorial contests, GOP candidate Robert McDonnell's 59-41 win over Democrat Creigh Deeds was expected, though not the huge margin--12 points better than Obama's 52-46 in 2008.  GOP nominee Chris Christie's 49-45 win over incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine (6 went to Independent Chris Daggett) was a smash result, 13 points better than Obama's 52-41 mark in 2008.  Independents broke 58-31 for Christie & 62-37 for McDonnell.

In New York State's 23rd Congressional District, Democrat Bill Owens defeating Conservative challenger Doug Hoffman, while a GOP disappointment, can be attributed to the GOP insiders picking a way-left pseudo-GOP nominee--who after quitting the race threw her support to...the Democrat, rather than to a Conservative.  The final numbers for NYS CD-23 saw a piddling 6 percent of voters cast their ballots for the GOP insider hack who withdrew over the weekend.

Critical to Democratic success in NYS CD 23 were three factors: (1) Democratic winner Bill Owens is an attractive moderate who pledged to work across party lines; (2) the seat was vacant, with a popular GOP incumbent having taken a post in the Obama administration; (3) the winner stressed local issues & has long lived in the CD, while the loser was a recent arrival and ran against the GOP establishment pick.

Gay marriage lost in a Maine referendum 53-47, making 31 states in which the idea has lost--every state so far.  But TABOR--TAxpayer Bill Of Rights--referenda lost in Maine and Washington State, where opponents outspent proponents big time.

Michael Barone noted that Virginia has freshman Democrats in three Congressional districts that this year went 62, 61 & 55 percent GOP, in districts that all went for Barack Obama in 2008.  This, MB observed, may sway the three freshman Democrats to vote against cap & trade legislation.  Brit Hume noted that McDonnell ran "a principled, disciplined" race that the GOP should emulate in 2010, and avoid harsh styles.  Karl Rove noted that the the GOP won 6 of 7 (and perhaps will take the 7th, the count uncertain still) statewide races in Pennsylvania, a state Obama won in 2008.  Mike Allen of Politico.com noted on CNBC "Morning Joe"that 93 percent of New Jersey voters and 85 percent of Virginia voters were worried about the economy.

Also on CNBC "Morning Joe" co-host Joe Scarborough (a former Florida GOP Congressman) and columnist Mike Barnicle agreed that candidates who ran negative campaigns under-performed, most notably in Virginia.  Barnicle noted that the "fat guy" joke backfired in new Jersey; another factor, MB noted, was high taxes.  Corzine was briefly ahead of Christie, until the negative personal attack ads aired, and then slipped back.  Former Democratic Tennessee Congressman Harold Ford added that taxes & jobs are key issues for 2010.  MSNBC exit polling showed President Obama with 57-42 approval in NJ but was down 48-51 in Virginia

2010.  This TAS article explains how Florida Governor Charlie Crist, regarded by conservative Republicans as a "RINO" (Republican In Name Only) has alienated voters early in his primary contest with conservative GOP aspirant Marco Rubio.  George Will highlights Rubio in a crisp op-ed that also explains why Crist is in trouble.  Rubio is a former Speaker of the House in the Florida State Legislature, telegenic and articulate.  His parents are Cuban exiles, and Rubio is no Castro fan.  Rubio will likely face a lefty Democrat, running in a swing state.  This will be a biggie.

Bottom Line. Virginia and New Jersey went big for Obama in 2008.  With other successes and with Presidential and other high-powered help in New Jersey all in vain, it was a smack in the chops for President 44.  Just on year after voters gave 44 a 53-47 win, they reminded him that the political center of gravity in America is well to the right of where Team Obama now sits--a position that is well too the left of how 44 ran last year.  Look above all for moderates that Rahm Emanuel got elected to Congress in 2006 & 2008 to reassess their positions on health care, cap & trade and a second stimulus package, so as not to run ahead of where their constituents are on these issues.

LFTC - IRAN: 30th "America Held Hostage" Anniversary

Today marks exactly 30 years since the then newly-minted Islamic Republic of Iran, under the ghastly Ayatollah Khomeini, seized the American embassy and took 52 diplomats hostage, beginning a siege that would last 444 days, until the day before Ronald Reagan was sworn in as America's 40th President.  Major opposition rallies were announced earlier this week; the Los Angeles Times reports that there were violent clashes in Tehran, though demonstrations were smaller than right after the June 12 election.  Two Iranian opposition figures excoriate President Obama for his failure to support democratic opposition to the regime.  Iran is skirting sanctions and stepping up uranium mine production.

The Washington Post reports that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei dismissed the idea of top-level talks with President Obama:

Iran's supreme leader, spurning what he described as several personal overtures from President Obama, warned Tuesday that negotiating with the United States would be "naive and perverted" and that Iranian politicians should not be "deceived" into starting such talks.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 70, said Obama has approached him several times through oral and written messages. It was the second time that Khamenei, who wields ultimate political and religious authority in Iran, has referred to the president's outreach.

The White House has not confirmed sending letters to the Iranian supreme leader but has acknowledged a willingness to talk to Tehran and said it has sought to communicate with Iranian leaders in a variety of ways.

In his harshest comments yet on the Obama administration, Khamenei said in a speech Tuesday that the United States has ill intentions toward Iran and is not to be trusted.

"The new U.S. president has said nice things," he said. "He has given us many spoken and written messages and said: 'Let's turn the page and create a new situation. Let's cooperate with each other in resolving world problems.' "

Thus, in reality, America is still held hostage.  The New York Times reports that internal political division within Iran is holding back possible resolution of nuclear talks.  The Times goes further with this gem:

Another factor working against acceptance of the deal involves the widely held sentiment that Iran cannot trust the West, or Russia, which would first receive the uranium from Iran, to abide by the terms of any deal.

Even by the NYT's standards (low) this is a winner: Iran, which concealed an illegal nuclear program for 18 years, and had repeatedly lied in the 7 years since its program was discovered, does not trust the West to keep a bargain.  In the event, the NYT article ignores that Iran's political leadership is not so divided as to stop uranium enrichment within the country.

The Christain Science Monitor reports that Iran had already by February this year produced enough highly-enriched uranium (HEU) to produce one nuclear bomb.  At an estimated 2.75 kilograms of daily production at its Natanz facility Iran can produce enough HEU for a bomb per year.  This calculation does not include HEU produced at other sites, disclosed and undisclosed.

Bret Stephens chronicles the repeated "no" answers Iran has given to stopping its nuclear program.  He writes:

Yet even as Tehran's rejections piled up, a view developed that all would be well if only the U.S. would drop the harsh rhetoric and meet with the Iranians face-to-face. So President Obama began making one overture after another to Iran, including a videotaped message praising its "great civilization." Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei replied that Mr. Obama had "insulted the Islamic Republic of Iran from the first day."

Now American negotiators are dealing directly with their Iranian counterparts, which is just fine with Ahmadinejad. "As long as this government is in power, it will not retreat one iota on the undeniable rights of the Iranian nation," he said last week. "A few years ago, they said we had to completely stop all our nuclear activities. Now look where we are today."

Bottom Line.  Thirty years ago America was held hostage for 444 days, a searing national humiliation.  Now we are being held hostage to a nuclear Iran, plaintively pursuing chimerical hopes that diplomacy will somehow save the day.  Jimmy Carter at least tried once to rescue the hostages.  That mission ended in abysmal failure.  The consequences of failure this time will prove far greater.  Yet President 44 seems disinclined to even make one serious effort to stop Iran.  The wages of defeat will be costlier this time.

LFTC - North Korea Makes Another Nuke

North Korea cheerfully announced this week that it had reprocessed the 8,000 spent fuel rods lifted from its inactive Yongbyon reactor into another plutonium bomb.  This gives them an estimated 6 to 8 nukes.

LFTC - Russia's Latest Nuclear Power Play

The Daily Telegraph reports that in September Russia conducted military exercises in Eastern Europe that included a simulated nuclear attack on Poland.  This was in the same month that President Obama bypassed Poland & Czech Republic to negotiate US missile defense deployments in Eastern Europe.  Moscow, it seems, does not, per the old jibe, "give ice in the wintertime."

LFTC - Index 10/3/09

4 posts: (1) Guantanamo: Vaccinating Swine--9/11, 3/11 & N/11; (2) PelosiCare: Sicker Than ObamaCare--The Home Front; (3) Election Day 2009: Jersey Showdown--The Home Front; (4) New York State GOP: Grassroots Revolts, Insider Bolts--The Home Front.

LFTC - Guantanamo: Vaccinating Swine

The terror detainees at Guantanamo will receive swine flu vaccinations, despite shortages domestically.  Wonder how voters going to the polls today will react to this news, if this nugget becomes widely known before they vote today?  That charming fellow at 1600 Pennsylvania would surely get the political equivalent of an Excedrin headache.

LFTC - PelosiCare: Sicker Than ObamaCare

The Wall Street Journal editors spotlight PelosiCare, calling it the worst major bill proposed since the New Deal.  Soaring costs, savaging the functional private side of Medicare in favor of the dysfunctional public side, undermining private insurance coverage, phony "cuts" in spending and confiscatory taxation of the middle class Obama promised not to tax--in all, PelosiCare is a lulu.  Read the gory details in a superb editorial.

AEI polling maven Karlyn Bowman details how the phrasing of poll questions affects voter support for the so-called public option: phrased in terms of increasing choice, voters like it; told the government will administer it they do not.

GOP Presidential prospect ex-Gov. Tim Pawlenty (MN) debunks the claim that PelosiCare or ObamaCare will allow states to "opt out" of a government plan, noting that states cannot op out of paying taxes to support the government option:

TAS: "On the Senate side, there’s a provision that would allow states to opt out of the government plan. As governor of Minnesota, if the Senate legislation were to pass as currently designed, would you recommend that the state of Minnesota opt out of the government plan or opt in?"

Gov. Pawlenty: "First of all, let’s call this what it is. This isn’t opt in or opt out, this is government-run health care, and their rationale for having a government-run health care plan is that they want to quote “keep the private sector honest.”  That’s what the president and Democratic members of Congress have said, and it is ludicrous. If you take that logic to the next step then, if we don’t like the price of toothpaste are we going to have government-run Wal-Marts or government-run Targets? If we don’t like the price of gasoline is government going to takeover the filling stations and oil refiners in the country like they have done in South America? I mean, it’s a preposterous mindset. So, they obviously want some sort of government-run plan, and they’re thrashing about trying to get the camel’s nose under the tent, or foot in the door. They couldn’t get it straight up in the bill, so now they’ve focused on triggers, opt ins, opt outs. I think it should be out of the bill completely because I think it’s a bad idea. The opt out is a sham. It’s a charade. The word out of Washington is that if you were to choose to opt out as a state, you can opt out of the benefits, but you can’t opt out of the tax increases to support the benefits. So all you’d be doing is paying for other states’ participation in the program. I don’t like it. I would prefer that it didn’t exist. I would like Minnesota to opt out, but it looks like they’re not really allowing you to opt out. It’s a sham. They’re allowing you to opt out of the benefits, but they’re not allowing you to opt out of paying for it."

Bottom Line.  As Ronald Reagan said of the former Soviet Union, apply to Democratic health care plans: "Trust, but verify."

LFTC - Election Day 2009: Jersey Showdown

This Philadelphia Inquirer story details 2009's most suspenseful major campaign, that for Governor of New Jersey.  The 10/29 Rasumssen poll shows GOP challenger Chris Christie leading incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine 46-43, with independent Chris Daggett at 8 percent support.  All three candidates have high negatives, but for an incumbent to hang near 40 percent support augurs ill, as late-breaking voters tend to side with the challenger, having held back to see if the incumbent can give them a reason to vote for him.  Worse for Corzine, Daggett's support is from voters who are 2-1 GOP, suggesting that late-switchers might help Christie.

But Newt Gingrich fears Wall Street money + Daggett may save Corzine.  Despite New Jersey having the nation's worst business climate.  Seems Wall Street centillionaire Corzine did better at making money for himself than he did making his state hospitable for constituents seeking to accomplish the same.

LFTC - New York State GOP: Grassroots Revolts, Insider Bolts

The Sunday New York Times front-pager on the withdrawal of the GOP nominee from New York's 23rd Congressional District styles the nominee as a "moderate."  The Conservative nominee is now likely to win; GOP consultant Ed Gillespie said on "ABC News This Week" that the GOP voters will break 3-1 towards the Conservative.  As for "moderate" the NYT does not take account of why Daily Kos, way Left politically, endorsed the GOP nominee over the Democrat!  Proof of how off-line the GOP insider pick was is that the GOP candidate, facing certain defeat, threw her support to...YES, her Democratic opponent, and not to her fellow, more conservative, Republican.  A Wall Street Journal editorial sagely cautions conservatives not to emulate the hard left, and misuse this local contest as a model for purging every moderate from GOP ranks.

Bottom Line.  The national significance out the election is probably limited, because it was a closed-door selection of an insider, rather than a voter primary that gave the GOP nod to the lady now withdrawn.  If the GOP loses the seat, it will serve party hacks right for nominating a lefty, outside the GOP mainstream of NYS CD 23.

LFTC - Index 11/2/09

4 posts: (1) IRAN: Is Obama Conceding Nuclear Status?--Wobble Watch; (2) Israel Marginalizes Mitchell--Wobble Watch; (3) Obama's Graceful Honduras Climbdown From Disgraceful Policy--Wobble Watch; (4) Decline of Governance--The Home Front.

LFTC - IRAN: Is Obama Conceding Nuclear Status?

TIME reports why Iran's counter-proposal--close to a full rejection--creates a "quandary" for Team Obama:

The agreement brokered by the International Atomic Energy Association Nuclear Agency in Vienna last week sought to bridge Western concerns that Iran's stockpile of low-enriched uranium could potentially be reprocessed into weapons material and Iran's need for fuel for a medical research reactor in Tehran. It requires Iran to provide the uranium for the fuel plates it needs from its own stocks, envisaging the transfer of an amount equivalent to some 75% of its stockpile to Russia by the end of the year for further processing. But according to Western officials briefed on Iran's response, Tehran wants instead to ship its uranium in smaller batches, and over a longer period of time. (Just as the Western powers suspect Iran of enriching uranium for ultimate conversion into bomb material, so do the Iranians suspect that the Vienna deal may fit with the Western goal of ending Iran's enrichment capability.) But Western officials warn that anything that leaves intact Iran's current stockpile — hypothetically enough to be reprocessed into a single crude atomic bomb should Iran decide to do so — is a deal-breaker. Although Iran continues to enrich uranium, replenishing the stocks of low enriched uranium shipped out under the deal would take about another year, during which time Western powers hope to negotiate an end to uranium enrichment in Iran.

The aspect of the deal most welcomed by Tehran was the fact that it represented a kind of tacit acceptance of Iran's enrichment program — after all, the uranium that would be used to create the reactor fuel was enriched in violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions, and the deal was not even contingent on Iran heeding those resolutions. Whereas the Bush Administration had refused to negotiate with Iran unless it halted enrichment, the Obama Administration has been talking without preconditions, about a deal that wouldn't even halt continued enrichment. Iran had managed to shift the debate from whether or not Iran should be allowed to enrich uranium to measures to safeguard its enriched uranium stockpiles from being used in a weapons program. Ahmadinejad proclaimed that diplomatic achievement when he appeared to endorse the nuclear deal on Thursday. "A few years ago, they said we had to completely stop all our nuclear activities," he said in a speech broadcast live on state television. "Now they want nuclear cooperation with the Iranian nation."

Count Israel as among those not amused.

The Associated Press reported that Team Obama is preparing a contingency strategy to deter nuclear use by a nuclear Iran, should negotiations & sanctions fail (they will).  The essential idea is to apply what nuclear strategists call "extended deterrence" to allies in Europe & the Mideast.  This means that the US extends its nuclear deterrence umbrella so that attacks on allies under it are treated by the US as attacks on the US itself.  Oddly, Iranian Nobel Peace Laureate Shirin Ebadi chimed in, saying that a nuclear Iran would not necessarily be intolerable.  She apparently does not grasp that a nuclear Iran could use its arsenal as a shield while it steps up repression domestically to ensconce its rulers permanently.

Nuclear proliferation maven Henry Sokolski urges imposition of sanctions against Iran now, to punish proliferation violations.  He suggests financial sanctions, human rights pressure and asking Moscow to disclose the list of Russian scientists helping Iran's nuclear program, that it may be compared with a list made by Israel.  But Moscow now says no sanctions anytime soon will be levied; Moscow can use its UN Security Council veto to prevent their effective imposition.

Here is a mini-paper on Fueling Iran's Research Reactor (4 pages) and a second on Iran's Centrifuge Uranium Enrichment (11 pages) program.  Both come from Sokolski's Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, an invaluable source of information on nuclear proliferation issues.  The latter report notes that Iran is the subject of four UN Security Council Resolutions re its nuclear program: UN SecRes 1737 (15 p.),  UN SecRes 1747 (9 p.), UNSec Res 1803 (7 p.) & UN SecRes 1835 (1 p.).

Bottom Line.  Iran marches on, Moscow throws roadblocks in front of efforts to contain Iran's uranium enrichment program.  Team Obama & the Europeans have already conceded Iran's right to enrich, which UN Security Council resolutions had hitherto denied.  If Tehran stonewalls & talks break down, Israel will know what it has to do.  Americans & Europeans may settle for deterrence, but it appears unlikely that Israel will accept the same choice.

LFTC - Obama's Graceful Honduras Climbdown From Disgraceful Policy

The Wall Street Journal, hardly pals with Team Obama, credits the administration with pulling the Honduran iron out of the fire via a face-saving compromise that likely will prevent Chavista Manuel Zelaya from retaining power:

The big news in Honduras is that the good guys seem to have won a four-month political standoff over the exile of former President Manuel Zelaya. Current President Roberto Micheletti agreed yesterday to submit Mr. Zelaya's request for reinstatement as president to the Supreme Court and Congress, and in return the U.S. will withdraw its sanctions and recognize next month's presidential elections.

Mr. Zelaya, whose term would have expired in January, isn't likely to be reinstated, given that the court has twice ruled against his right to remain in office. The Honduran Congress, which voted in June to remove Mr. Zelaya, will then use that high court's opinion to decide if he should be restored to power.

The agreement impliedly recognizes that Zelaya was deposed legally and thus is not automatically entitled to reinstatement.  The November 29 elections will go forward.  If reinstated--unlikely in that the Supreme Court & Congress approved Zelaya's ouster in the first place--Zelaya would serve until late January.  But he is not then out of the woods:

Washington and the Organization of American States have now promised to send observers and recognize the elections; there will be no amnesty for Mr. Zelaya if he is charged with a crime; and the zelayistas will renounce their plans to call for a constituent assembly to rewrite the constitution. If Mrs. Clinton wants to call this a victory, it is—for Honduras.

WSJ South America pundit Mary Anastasia O'Grady hopes the new policy holds, but reminds us how awful US policy was, and how hated by most locals our current Ambassador there now is:

The need to dictate to Hondurans how to run their country has been the problem from the start. The moment the Honduran Supreme Court ordered the arrest of Mr. Zelaya in June for organizing mob violence and attempting to overthrow the constitution Mr. Llorens anointed himself colonial viceroy in charge of imposing U.S. will. Plenty of Molotov-hurling leftists also took Mr. Zelaya's side. But Mr. Llorens staked out a position for the U.S., defending the legitimacy of the erratic former president. The U.S. ambassador used every weapon he could lay his hands on to try to force the country to restore Mr. Zelaya to power.

This violated Honduran sovereignty. But Mr. Llorens's boss back home, Barack Obama, seemed more interested in appeasing U.S. enemies than standing by friends, or even sticking to his pledge not to meddle in other countries' affairs. Mr. Chávez and Fidel Castro were supporting Mr. Zelaya, and Mr. Obama apparently wanted to be part of the gang.

Clearly no one in Washington expected it to be so hard to break the will of Hondurans. That effort became even more embarrassing when zelayistas mounted a campaign of terror, kidnapping and murdering Honduran authorities and their relatives. There were at least three such incidents in two weeks. The terrorists were also sabotaging the country's electricity grid. To avoid further taint, the U.S. sent a delegation to strike the compromise reached late Thursday.

If O'Grady's pessimism proves unwarranted--and the fact that the new agreement prevents Zelaya from seeking a constitutional amendment to abolish the one-term limit for Presidents is a positive sign--then Team Obama no longer follows in the foolish footsteps of President Bush, whose administration promoted and accepted the 2006 Palestinian election won by Hamas.  43 did not grasp that promotion of democracy, while often in America's interest, is not always so.  Hitler was elected in 1933.  Should we have promoted him then?

Election of totalitarian, terrorist or thug leaders is not in our interest.  America's interest lies in promoting liberal democracy, not illiberal varieties--especially if they intend to spread noxious democratic forms.  America can accept unfriendly democracies that do not destroy democracy that do not spread tyranny, terror, subversion and the like.  Think India from 1950 until the fall of the Berlin Wall.  For those four decades India, a democracy save for 21 months in 1975-1977, was aligned with the former Soviet Union.  India bought Russian military equipment and voted against America in the United Nations, and in 1974 joined the nuclear club.  We did--rightly--live with this.  India still was a relatively liberal democracy.

But aiding a Chavista coming to power in Central America would have been democracy for dummies only.  Praise be to Team Obama for finding an exit strategy in Honduras that protects American interests.  If Team Obama wishes to save political & diplomatic face while so doing, OK by me--the best is enemy of the good.

Bottom Line.  Team Obama should take the lesson that Team Bush never fully absorbed: America's interest in promoting democracy extends only to liberal democracies.  Democracies that fall into the three Ts--totalitarian, terrorist and thuggish--need not apply for our help.

LFTC - Israel Marginalizes Mitchell

The Washington Times reports that Israel has put peace talks with the Palestinians on a slow track, contrary to Team Obama's & special Mideast envoy George Mitchell's wishes.  Israel is prepared (as oft before) to play Congress off against the Obama White House.  And the Washington Post reports that the Jordan River Valley is a focal point of Isreali-Palestinian conflict.

Reality is setting in.  Team Obama's fantasy of a rapid Israel - Palestinian settlement is history.  Further confirmation of this comes in the latest Palestinian condemnation of US policy, this time directed as SecState Hillary, because she reiterated Team Obama's latest position on Israeli settlements--"restraint" rather than an absolute freeze.  Predictably, Palestinians went ballistic, showing once again the futility of top-down high-profile Mideast peacemaking.  Only PM Netanyahu's bottom-up vision, already being put into practice with some success by Tony Blair & US Gen. Keith Dayton--securing one town at a time by stabilizing local government and ousting thugs & terrorists--can work.

Bottom Line.  Team Obama is learning what Team Bush learned: Dealing with the Palestinians in high-visibility diplomacy is like Charlie Brown dealing with Lucy & the football.

LFTC - Decline of Governance

Daniel Henninger sees a general decline of governance driven by a corrupt, obtuse political class: the Democrats mired in outdated governance models, oblivious to change, with the GOP marginally less out of touch.  Peggy Noonan sees "callous children" misgoverning because the current class has never known truly desperate times.  Charles Krauthammer sees President Obama doing more blaming of his predecessor than governing.  Mark Steyn sees Bush as "Blame Czar" for Team Obama.  George Will explains how liberals intimidate referendum voters by demanding disclosure of who sponsors referenda they dislike.  Will also said on "ABC News This Week" that the latest health care bill--amusingly advertised as preserving consumer choice--uses the "shall" 3,425 times in its gazillion pages.  The common predicate of all these pieces: a fundamental failure of governance.  The first target of resulting voter anger will likely be that nice man in the White House who, pundit Michael Goodwin tells us, is being tripped up by problems of power in his first year--specifically, overusing his bully pulpit & retreating abroad.  Yet another Presidential power trip was recounted this AM by co-host Joe Scarborough on "CNBC Morning Joe": Yesterday, the entire northeast air corridor was shut down for four hours while His Royal Highness visited New Jersey to stump for embattled Governor Jon Corzine (shades of Bill Clinton's $400 haircut that shut down LAX for 30 minutes).  Karl Rove takes a peek at tomorrow's elections and sees trouble for 44.

Bottom Line.  There is growing public sentiment that the governing classes have lost touch with reality, and are consumed by preoccupation with their own sense of entitlement.  This is profoundly unhealthy for the future of the republic.