Amidst the "all Haiti + Massachusetts news all the time" sturm und drang of the past week is this little item that normally might have provoked more media interest:
The Washington Times reported that US intelligence now believes Iran NEVER STOPPED its nuclear weapons program. The information is contained in a draft of a new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) to be presented to the White House, in February at the earliest:. The WT article offers a view on the new Iran intel posture:
Differences among analysts now focus on whether the country's supreme leader has given or will soon give orders for full-scale production of nuclear weapons.
The new consensus emerging among analysts in the 16 agencies that make up the U.S. intelligence community on Iran's nuclear arms program is expected to be the highlight of a classified national intelligence estimate nearing completion that will replace the estimate issued in 2007.
The unclassified summary of the 2007 document said the U.S. intelligence community had "moderate confidence" that Iran's nuclear weapons work had halted in 2003. In a footnote, it stated that weapons development was defined as warhead design and not the enrichment of uranium, which has continued unabated contrary to the Iranian government's agreement not to develop uranium enrichment techniques outside International Atomic Energy Agency controls.
A senior U.S. military officer who spoke on the condition of anonymity last week revealed that the new argument among analysts is over Iran's decision to move forward with weaponization.
"There is a debate being held about whether the final decision has been made. It is fair to argue that the supreme leader has not said, 'Build a nuclear weapon.' That actually does not matter, because they are not at the point where they could do that anyway."
The officer, who is knowledgeable about operational matters and intelligence on Iran, said Iran's nuclear program is well-advanced and moving toward the point at which a weapon could be built.
"Are they acting as if they would like to be in a position to do what the supreme leader orders if he gives the thumbs up at some point down the road? The answer to that is indisputably yes," the officer said.
There is more Iran news. Iran warned that it might strike at the more than 90 warships now patrolling the Persian Gulf, were it attacked. Jordan's General Intelligence Department (GID) said that Iran was behind a failed attempt to assassinate Israeli diplomats; the attack was an ostensible retaliation for the killing of an Iranian scientist, which Iran blames on Israel & America. (In reality, this seems a Reichstag fire ploy by the Iranian regime.) Amidst all this, what does China do? China urged more "flexibility" in considering stronger UN sanctions against Iran. In a business-as-usual move, a German firm has signed a major natural gas equipment deal with Iran.
Retuers reports that Iran has formally notified the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that it rejects parts of the deal the IAEA has offered Iran. Iran has February plans: it will launch three new communication satellites; such launches serve also as ballistic missile tests applicable to military use. The US, for its part, plans to test its Ground-based Midcourse Missile (GMD) interceptor in the Pacific Ocean in February; the test will mimic an Iranian missile aimed at the US.
Two Bush-43 public diplomacy senior officials urge a soft-power strategy to move the Iranian rulers toward less aggressive policies, coupled with stronger sanctions.
Bottom Line. The November 2007 US NIE on Iran's nuclear program was, as critics then charged, a political document, authored by analysts who believe that a strike against Iranian nuclear facilities is more risky than reliance upon traditional deterrence of a nuclear-armed Iran. This latest NIE, though apparently not politicized, comes with a President in power even less inclined to launch a preventive strike at Iran than his predecessor. But Israel was never fooled, and the ball thus remains in Israel's court, as to whether a strike will be launched against Iran to delay its crossing the nuclear weapons threshold.
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