A pro-democracy Iran activist says that the Iranian regime is bluffing with its nuclear bluster over the past week. He also predicts escalating, violent clashes Thursday. Here is why he believes Iran is bluffing....
Meanwhile, Ahmadinejad is trying everything in his power to change the subject. As Michael Adler reports in The Daily Beast, the president announced on Sunday that Iran will begin enriching uranium from between 3.5 percent and 5 percent to 20 percent, a move that experts believe would put the country in a position to reach the 90 percent enrichment level required to weaponize its nuclear program. Ahmadinejad followed up this statement with a promise to build 10 new enrichment plants in the next year.These announcements are a joke; they cannot be taken seriously. Not only has Iran thus far barely managed to enrich uranium to 5 percent, it can hardly keep its one enrichment plant in Natanz—which took many years to build—up and running full time. The idea that Iran could build 10 more plants in a year while also figuring out how to enrich uranium to 20 percent is laughable. Ahmadinejad’s announcement is nothing more than a feeble attempt at nuclear brinksmanship, as the French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner acknowledged when he called it “blackmail.” Iran’s hope is to return to the negotiations begun in Vienna last October over its nuclear stockpile on more favorable terms.
More than anything else, these announcements were intended for domestic consumption. With what promises to be a tumultuous and violent national celebration on the horizon, Ahmadinejad is desperate to rally the country behind him using the one issue on which all Iranians, regardless of their politics or piety, agree. Ahmedinejad hopes to elicit a belligerent response from the West, allowing him to arouse the people’s national pride. Which, by the way, may explain Iran’s surprising move last week, when it launched a mouse, two turtles, and some worms into orbit as a prelude to a promised manned space mission.
Daily Telegraph columnist Con Coughlin sees the nuclear talk as puffing prestige of a regime fearful of a rising opposition whose base is broadening. Coughlin writes:
Nothing is more guaranteed to rally support for Iran's beleaguered government than the suggestion that foreign powers are trying to deny the country the right to develop nuclear technology, and by blaming the West for the scientist's murder the regime would have hoped to arouse the country's deep-rooted nationalist instincts, while at the same time disposing of a high profile opponent.
Mr Ahmadinejad is certainly not reticent about playing the nuclear card to counter opposition complaints about his government. On various occasions since he first became president in 2005 he has made threatening noises about Iran's nuclear ambitions to bring his domestic critics into line, and the regime's most recent announcements regarding uranium enrichment should be seen in this context.
The fact that Iran has neither the technical expertise nor the financial resources to expand its enrichment programme to the level outlined by its scientists at the weekend is of little concern to Mr Ahmadinejad. By making the issue the centrepiece of his agenda to celebrate the Islamic revolution's anniversary, the Iranian president is calculating that national support for the country's nuclear programme will outstrip that for the protest movement.
All of which makes Iran's recent nuclear posturing something of a challenge for Western policymakers. If Iran is serious about raising its uranium enrichment capability to a higher level, that will be further evidence that it has no intention of negotiating a peaceful resolution of its nuclear programme with the West. But if the West overplays its hand by implementing crippling sanctions against Iran in response, then it might rally support in the country behind Mr Ahmadinejad's regime, thereby denying the pro-reform movement the opportunity to challenge the legitimacy of the hardline conservatives.
The time frame is indeed not credible. But the direction of the program is another matter.
Meanwhile, President Obama called Iran's actions "unacceptable" and promised to seek "a significant regime of sanctions" against Iran. Specifically, 44 said:
That indicates to us that despite their posturing that their nuclear power is only for, for civilian use that they in fact continue to pursue a course that would lead to weaponization. That is not acceptable to the international community.
Strong stuff, except that several times in 2009 44 at 1600 called North Korea's belligerent behavior "unacceptable" and then did...ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. SecDef Gates wants sanctions in weeks, not months.
Bottom Line. It is impossible for outsiders to know the exact rate of progress or lack of it of Iran's program. That they cannot build all they claim within a year we may take as a given. But that they are bluffing as to their general intent & goals is another matter. The betting here is that they are not bluffing on the latter.
Letter from the Capitol, LFTC, 9/11, National Security, Terrorism, Homeland Security, Nuclear Proliferation, Arms Control, WMD, Foreign Policy
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