HK writes:
Yet while Iraq is being exorcised from our debate, its reality is bound to obtrude on our consciousness. The U.S. troop withdrawal from Iraq will not alter the geostrategic importance of the country even as it alters that context.
Mesopotamia has been the strategic focal point of the region for millennia. Its resources affect countries far away. The dividing line between the Shiite and the Sunni worlds runs through its center -- indeed, through its capital. Iraq's Kurdish provinces rest uneasily between Turkey and Iran and indigenous adversaries within Iraq. It cannot be in the American interest to leave the region as a vacuum.
Nor is it possible to separate Iraq from the conflict with revolutionary jihad. The outcome in Iraq will influence the psychological balance in the war against radical Islam, specifically whether the ongoing withdrawal from Iraq comes to be perceived as a retreat from the region or a more effective way to sustain it.
HK adds:
The outcome in Iraq will have profound consequences, above all, in Saudi Arabia, the key country in the Persian Gulf, as well as in the other Gulf states and in Lebanon, where Hezbollah, financed by Iran, is already a Shiite state within the state. The United States therefore has an important stake in a moderate evolution of Iraq's domestic and foreign policies.
The Obama administration is stalemated in negotiations with Iran to contain the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Whether the nuclear issue is settled by diplomacy or other evolutions, the stability of the region will be crucially affected by the ability to bring about a political and strategic equilibrium between Iran and Iraq. Without such an arrangement, the region runs the risk of living indefinitely on top of a heap of explosives toward which a smoldering fuse is burning.
Bottom Line. Iraq does remain relevant, and a long-term low-profile American presence is essential for several reasons. Us troop presence will restrain iranian adventurism, reassure elements in Iraq wary of post-US governance and--perhaps most important of us--enable America to gather quality intel about events inside Iraq. The lack of reliable human intel was the key factor in the Iraq 2003 WMD intel debacle. Put simply, America needs a permanent presence in the form of boots (military) or shoes (civilian) on the ground throughout the Muslim crescent (from africa to Southeast Asia-a/k/a the "ar of crisis") if it is to garner useful intel in the Islamic world.
Letter from the Capitol, LFTC, 9/11, National Security, Nuclear Proliferation, Arms Control, WMD, Foreign Policy
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