Retired General Paul Vallely analyzes the regional permutations of an Israeli strike at Iran's nuclear facilities. Israel cannot assume that Iran will stand aside, even if Iran cannot send nuclear weapons in Israel's direction.A major escalation using Hezbollah's Lebanon base is a distinct prospect....
The media has been fraught with reports about Israel's action to this Iranian attack that appears more real each day in passing. Israel does not require a green light from the U.S. as a sovereign nation and “needs to do what it has to do.” It is now a political decision for Benjamin Netanyahu and his government. With the recent successful medium-range ballistic missile test and claims of 5,000 uranium-enrichment centrifuges and additional facilities, Ahmadinejad has brought the situation to a critical tipping point as the rest of the world (to include the U.S.) sits, appeases and threatens more sanctions and provides almost no support to the Iranian Opposition. A Chamberlain-type approach historically spells disaster.
Bottom Line. Under the watchful eye of UN peacekeepers, put in southern Lebanon after the 2006 Israel - Hezbollah War, the terrorist surrogate of Iran has rearmed fully and then some. Israel thus is more vulnerable to a Hezbollah attack than it was in 2006. But Israel has a new government, and a new coalition, far stronger on defense matters and surely schooled in the military picture to its north. If Israel strikes at Iran, bet that this time, unlike last time, it will be prepared for a showdown with Hezbollah. Its major concern this time likely will be that unlike a friendly bush 43 administration that gave Israel five weeks to win, a strategic gift Israel fumbled, this time Israel faces an American regime that can be counted to run ASAP to the UN to press Israel to stop, without regard to Israel's strategic calculus, and with a poor grasp of America's overriding interest in Israel destroying Hezbollah once and for all, if it can do so.
Comments