What British WW-II PM Winston Churchill called "the Wizard War"--advanced technology sensors & weapons--has morphed into new, more deadly threats. Clifford May at NRO warns that we are unprepared for increasingly grave cyber-security threats. And the Heritage Foundation's Baker Spring warns that the EMP threat from rogue nations is growing. Details will keep you awake nights....
Cyberwar. A gaggle of cyber-criminals & cyber-warriors and, increasingly, cyber-terrorists is targeting America, with the country's infrastructures increasingly at risk, according to a Washington Post op-ed by a senior Clinton cyber-security official:
The cyber-war mirrors the nuclear challenge in terms of the potential economic and psychological effects. So, should our strategy be deterrence or preemption? The answer: both. Depending on the nature of the threat, we can deploy aspects of either approach to defend America in cyberspace.
During the Cold War, deterrence was based on a few key elements: attribution (understanding who attacked us), location (knowing where a strike came from), response (being able to respond, even if attacked first) and transparency (the enemy's knowledge of our capability and intent to counter with massive force).
Against the Soviets, we dealt with the attribution and location challenges by developing human intelligence behind the Iron Curtain and by fielding early-warning radar systems, reconnaissance satellites and undersea listening posts to monitor threats. We invested heavily in our response capabilities with intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarines and long-range bombers, as well as command-and-control systems and specialized staffs to run them. The resources available were commensurate with the challenge at hand -- as must be the case in cyberspace.
We must, working with the private sector, re-engineer the Internet to enable better security:
The United States must also translate our intent into capabilities. We need to develop an early-warning system to monitor cyberspace, identify intrusions and locate the source of attacks with a trail of evidence that can support diplomatic, military and legal options -- and we must be able to do this in milliseconds. More specifically, we need to reengineer the Internet to make attribution, geolocation, intelligence analysis and impact assessment -- who did it, from where, why and what was the result -- more manageable. The technologies are already available from public and private sources and can be further developed if we have the will to build them into our systems and to work with our allies and trading partners so they will do the same.
We must supplement cyber-deterrence with pre-emption against terrorist & criminal groups:
There are many organizations (including al-Qaeda) that are not motivated by greed, as with criminal organizations, or a desire for geopolitical advantage, as with many states. Rather, their worldview seeks to destroy the systems of global commerce, trade and travel that are undergirded by our cyber-infrastructure. So deterrence is not enough; preemptive strategies might be required before such adversaries launch a devastating cyber-attack.
We preempt such groups by degrading, interdicting and eliminating their leadership and capabilities to mount cyber-attacks, and by creating a more resilient cyberspace that can absorb attacks and quickly recover. To this end, we must hammer out a consensus on how to best harness the capabilities of the National Security Agency, which I had the privilege to lead from 1992 to 1996. The NSA is the only agency in the United States with the legal authority, oversight and budget dedicated to breaking the codes and understanding the capabilities and intentions of potential enemies. The challenge is to shape an effective partnership with the private sector so information can move quickly back and forth from public to private -- and classified to unclassified -- to protect the nation's critical infrastructure.
EMP. Then there is the EMP challenge. Intense bursts of EMP, or Electro-Magnetic Pulse, is a phenomenon of nuclear explosions. Detonate a single Hiroshima-size atomic bomb 300 miles above Dorothy's Kansas, and a series of powerful pulses will fry electronics within a 1,470-mile radius. In a worst case scenario the entire electric grid of the continental US could be crashed. Communications networks would follow after back-up ran out. In an instant, America would be sent back to 1875, with vastly greater population to support. Absent help, within one year as many as 90 percent of Americans would perish of starvation or disease. My EMP article last year explains the horrific details.
Bottom Line. Wizard Wars are eventualities America can prepare for. Given huge vulnerabilities there is no excuse for our not doing so. We roll the national security dice at potentially extreme peril.
Letter from the Capitol, LFTC, 9/11, National Security, Terrorism, Homeland Security, Cyberwar, Cybersecurity, Cybercrime, Nuclear Proliferation, Arms Control, WMD, Foreign Policy
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