Two ex-senators & an ex-general warn: US must ready military Iran options....
Former senators Charles Robb (D-VA) & Dan Coats (R-IN), & former General Chuck Wald (the latter played a prominent role in the 2003 Iraq campaign) explain that sanctions do not have enough time to work, and that the US should prepare and if need be, employ military options against Iran's nuclear facilities. A July 9 Washington Post op-ed (by Robb & Wald) is based upon the latest report from the bipartisan group the three belong to, that has tracked Iran's nuclear progress and options to stop it. (This LA Times story on German firms circumventing Chancellor Angela Merkel's pro-sanctions policy punctuates the WP op-ed's point on sanctions not being enough to stop Iran.
The 60-page report, Meeting the Challenge: When Time Runs Out (July 2010), by the Bipartisan Policy Center is well worth a full read. A few nuggets of special interest, for those who do not have time to read the full document:
Military Options. By December 2010 the US will have twenty GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOB) super-bombs, 15-ton monsters that when dropped from high altitude can penetrate 200 feet of reinforced concrete so as to destroy underground targets. Only the B-2 Spirit stealth bomber can carry the weapon. Israel's US-supplied bunker-busters can only penetrate 20 feet of reinforced concrete, meaning that several bombs will have to be dropped to reach Iran's deep facilities; one major facility, the Natanz uranium enrichment plant, is buried under concrete, an estimated 30 feet below the surface. Iran has several other major buried nuclear facilities.
Intelligence Limits. The US has never predicted a nuclear breakout. Russia (1949), France (1960), China (1964), India (1974 bomb & 1998 missile tests), advanced Libyan, Syrian & Iraqi programs. Add to this that while we knew Pakistan was on the threshold we did not predict their 1998 bomb/missile tests. And add to that our inability to verify North Korea's 2002 statement that it had gone nuclear; it took the 2006 detonation of a nuclear device to convince us that the mendacious North Koreans had in fact joined the nuclear club.
Iranian Regime. Iran can be expected to be increasingly aggressive behind a nuclear shield. Emergence of a liberal democratic regime in Iran is highly unlikely anytime soon. More likely is a military dictatorship, equally dangerous with nuclear weapons as is the clerical rulers who hold power today.
America & Its Allies. The Suez Crisis of 1956--when the US refused to back Israel, France & Britain in seizing the Suez Canal, which had been nationalized by militant Arabist Egyptian dictator Gamel Adbel Nasser--led to increased Arab aggression in the Mideast, backed by the Soviet Union, whose nuclear threat President Eisenhower refused to counter, forcing our allies to pull back. Arab oil militancy followed this show of American weakness.
Missile Defense. In a WSJ op-ed, ex-CIA chief & arms policy expert R. James Woolsey & missile defense maven Rebecca Heinrichs warn that Iran may field an ICBM capability by 2015, which our missile defense capability may not reach. They propose that the US deploy a third missile defense site, on the US east coast or in Europe, to join the current Alaska (26 interceptors) & California (4 interceptors) sites. They also counsel that any Senate ratification of New START must be conditioned on maintaining absolute freedom to deploy necessary missile defense.
Bottom Line. The clock is running, and Team Obama is watching it run. America could cripple Iran's program, but likely will decline to do so. An Israeli strike in increasingly likely, but its likely impact would be marginal, and Iranian retaliation certain. Only a US strike can seriously degrade Iran's retaliatory capability. Thus the clock is indeed running out.
Letter from the Capitol, LFTC, 9/11, National Security, Terrorism, Homeland Security, Nuclear Proliferation, Arms Control, WMD, Foreign Policy, UN, Conservative Politics
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