Who's up, who's down, en route to SC?....
Romney is the first GOP candidate to win both Iowa & NH since 1976. Sounds great, but Gerald Ford lost the fall '76 election to Jimmy Carter.
Turnout was down from 2008. Add in that Iowa's turnout was about the same as 2008, and this may suggest a lack of GOP enthusiasm for the field, given that they ardently desire to unseat Barack Obama. But XMSirius talk-radio host David Webb argues cogently that there is less NH drama this time (no Democratic contest), so voters may have been less excited.
Mitt's best victory speech line: "The President is running out of ideas; now he's running out of excuses." Also good, referring to the Bain Capital brouhaha: "The country already has a leader who divides us with the politics of envy." And: "I want you to remember when the White House represented the best of who we are, not the worst of what Europe has become." (Shades of Donald Rumsfeld's "Old Europe....")
Obama's Standing. A CBS poll shows that not only Mitt Romney, but ... get this ... Ron Paul--yes, THAT Ron Paul--beats Obama head to head. AND: All the remaining GOP candidates polled within single digits of The One. A US News poll shows that by 33-16 respondents fear an Obama re-election. These, coupled with a stagnant economy, augurs for a GOP year--IF (a BIG if) the GOP does not self-destruct. Alas, this might happen. And The One has an ace in the hole, writes Michael Goodwin: (with rare exceptions) mainstream media's "see no evil" attitude re disarray at the White House. Such stories are inside baseball standing alone, but cumulatively can paint a picture in the minds of undecided voters. Put simply, much of MSM remains in totally the tank for Obama.
Ron Paul's Wrecking Ball. As for Paul, the kiddie vote marches on, posing, said Larry Sabato on TV this AM, a major threat to GOP prospects in November. It would be the ultimate irony if the youth vote, which "O" swept in 2008 on his way to the WH, now alienated from "O" by job miseries, is pulled by Ron Paul away from the eventual GOP nominee, giving "O" a second term. Thus, an utterly self-absorbed renegade GOP crank (two, if one counts Newt) may yet put "O" in again.
Romney's Race to Lose. Stephen Hayes sees an ace for Romney in Florida: the state's liberal absentee ballot rules, which may see half of Florida's voters vote before the January 31 FL primary date; nearly all of these will go to Romney, who has been running ads in FL while the other candidates struggle elsewhere.
Mitt's solid win shows that at least in the short term his "I like to fire people" gaffe (see below) has not taken effect. Undecided voters were 44 percent of those who voted. Late deciders went 32 percent for Romney.
Telling numbers: electability was thought Romney's key asset. Yet as John Podhoretz writes, Mitt, even if he sweeps the primaries, may be the weakest GOP fall candidate ever:
But nobody loves him. No one is inspired by him. He cuts an impressive figure and is clearly very intelligent, but he is a man without an ideological core.
Claiming he should be president because he knows how to run a business may be the least stirring message any candidate has seized upon since Michael Dukakis foundered in 1988 by claiming he could bring “competence” to the White House.
Mitt may stagger across the finish line, JP concludes, if only because Obama's liabilities are greater than Mitt's many minuses.
Romney's Bain Capital Problem. The Wall Street Journal examined Romney's record as Bain Capital CEO. The WSJ editors defend Romney's Bain record; they note that college endowments & public pension funds are among Bain's investors. James Pethokoukis of AEi summarizes the WSJ data well.
Chris Wallace (t/h Jennifer Rubin) dismantled DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman-Schultz's attack on Mitt's Bain record:
WALLACE: Let me ask you a question. You go after -- let me ask you -- you go after Romney for laying off people at Bain Capital, correct?
WASSERMAN SCHULTZ: Well, for a lot of things, related to his role at Bain Capital.
WALLACE: But that's one of them.
WASSERMAN SCHULTZ: For that. For outsourcing jobs --
WALLACE: Let me ask you about that. Is the president responsible for laying off the people at Solyndra?
WASSERMAN SCHULTZ: No, because the president wasn't the CEO of Solyndra.
WALLACE: Well, Romney wasn't the CEO of these companies, either. The president was --
WASSERMAN SCHULTZ: No, Romney --
WALLACE: Excuse me. The president was a venture capitalist. He put taxpayer money into Solyndra and a thousand people lost their jobs.
WASSERMAN SCHULTZ: OK.
WALLACE: So is the president responsible for the thousand people who lost their jobs at Solyndra?
WASSERMAN SCHULTZ: Not even close. But Mitt Romney is responsible for being CEO of companies that he took over. That --
WALLACE: No, he wasn't the CEO.
WASSERMAN SCHULTZ: He was the CEO of Bain. Bain bought these companies, took them over --
WALLACE: Well, the president is the CEO of the country.
WASSERMAN SCHULTZ: But he's not the CEO of Solyndra.
WALLACE: And Mitt Romney wasn't the CEO of AMPAD or these other companies.
WASSERMAN SCHULTZ: But Bain Capital owned those companies. He made the decision --
WALLACE: So, you are saying the president had no responsible for what happened in Solyndra? WASSERMAN SCHULTZ: What I'm saying is that Mitt Romney, as the CEO --
WALLACE: I'm asking you about the president.
WASSERMAN SCHULTZ: No. Mitt -- no, the president --
WALLACE: Has no responsibility for Solyndra?
WASSERMAN SCHULTZ: The president has responsibility for the green jobs programs where he made investments.
WALLACE: And how about the company Solyndra that went bankrupt?
WASSERMAN SCHULTZ: But the decisions that were made at Solyndra that ultimately led to their bankruptcy were those of the people who worked at Solyndra. Mitt Romney -- Chris, let me answer you a question, please.
WALLACE: Well, I think you did answer the question.
WASSERMAN SCHULTZ: Mitt Romney, it's total apples and oranges comparison.
WALLACE: But you made the point. You think that one is he is the CEO of Bain and the other one you say yes. And I just would like to give -- we got a minute left.
Chairman Priebus, your response for that, sir.
PRIEBUS: Well, you know, I learned in law when the other side is losing the argument, sometimes you quit talking and you let them continue.
Debbie W-S appeared yesterday on "Fox & Friends" to defend the DNC's ad taking Romney's Monday "I like to fire people who provide services to me" out of context. When pressed on this, D W-S replied that Romney had chosen to be general, not specific, and thus showed, once again, his "insensitivity" to the plight of working people. This inverts the truth yet again: Romney was, in fact, VERY specific: he was talking about the lack of consumer choice under ObamaCare. What Mitt likes is CHOICE--the ability to fire bad providers & hire better ones.
Bottom Line. Romney has a neat victory to take south, but he may have fatally wounded himself with his "like to fire people" gaffe--if not in the GOP primaries, for the general election. An optimistic take is that he got an early warning of what will come this fall, and has time to prepare. And still Mitt should not be thought a shoo-in. In 1976 Ronald Reagan did not win a single primary until May, yet came within a whisker of beating Gerald Ford for the nomination.
Letter from the Capitol, LFTC, Conservative Politics
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