Who should GOP want to win Florida?
In Newt's case it is his temperament--unstable, impulsive, undisciplined, even reckless, and with a grandiosity that is off-putting to many voters. For Mitt, it is an inability to connect with people the way other wealthy candidates have done--think FDR, JFK. And as Byron York notes, a business background rarely has been a Presidential election trump card; the last such winner was Herbert Hoover in 1928.
SO: Pick RICK, FL GOP Tea Party favorite. Santorum was, in Robert Costa's phrase, "the adult in the room" at Thursday's debate. But WILL Rick win? Unlikely--too much ground to cover. Yet Rick told NRO's Robert Costa that he will "go west (& midwest)" to compete in the February primaries & caucuses, which don't require the millions needed to run TV ads in Florida's huge media market. Costa reports that Santorum has a financial angel who sat on the sidelines during Florida's rugby scrum, but will finance TV ads for Santorum in February; Santorum insists he will survive to Super Tuesday (March 6). Barry Rubin assesses GOP foreign policy through the lens of Santorum's positions.
Gallup polled swing-state voters and found Romney edging "O" 48-47, Newt trailing 54-40, Santorum trailing 51-44 & Paul trailing 50-43. Romney's Florida surge is partly powered by Hispanic voters, who reportedly are responding to Mitt's economic message; Romney's dad was born in Mexico. FL Hispanics are a changing demographic group. Once nearly all Cuban, they now include substantial numbers of Mexicans & Puerto Ricans; also, today's Cubans are grand-kids of the Castro exiles, and far more liberal than their ancestors. GOP candidates running against the Castro brothers may encounter FL Hispanic headwinds in the fall election.
Politico reporters describe FL as five states in one:
It’s a political behemoth with a diverse population and 10 different, expensive media markets. There’s the Panhandle, with areas that resemble the deep South and rural towns that are only recently attracting major businesses. There’s north Florida, anchored in Jacksonville, with its large African-American population. The heart of the state is traversed by the I-4 corridor, a crucial swing area that “in attitude and lifestyle is like St. Louis with palm trees,” said Quinnipiac University pollster Peter Brown.
On the state’s Gulf side, you’ll find Midwestern retirees and wealth on the Gold Coast. South Florida teems with transplanted Northeasterners and a large Hispanic population....
“It’s as good a microcosm of the country as you’re gonna find outside of Ohio,” said Brown. “On a composite basis, it’s a pretty good indicator of the country…It is an amazingly diverse state. It’s like five different states.”
Shedding light on Florida's contest is the sagacious Neal Freeman, who produced William F. Buckley's fabled "Firing Line" program, who sees Florida 2012 as a rerun of the now cavernous split between grassroots conservatives and establishment players, dating back to the nomination of Barry Goldwater in 1964.
You really get the sense that Newt's Florida future is crumbling when President John Tyler's 84-year-old grandson, Harrison--yes, one of two surviving grandsons of America's TENTH President (served Mar. 20, 1841 - March 20, 1845)--calls Newt "a jerk" (yes, THAT Newt). But if Newt polarizes GOP primary voters, what to make of Obama's having had, per Gallup polls (t/h Peter Wehner, Commentary Blog), the highest polarization ever for a President's first three years: 1st (R 23% R v. D 88% approval = 65 pts.), 2nd (R - 13% v. D 81% = 68 pts.) & 3rd (R 12% v. D 80% = 68 pts.). Only as the Iraq War disintegrated in G.W. Gush's 5th, 6th & 7th years was the partisan divide wider.
But as Bill Kristol notes, Obama may well be less vulnerable than was Jimmy Carter in 1980, because the bad consequences of his policies are less obvious, as--especially in foreign policy--the fallout may well be after Nov. 6, 2012; and the economy may improve just enough to make voters feel things are beginning to get better. And, alas, the GOP has no 21st century Ronald Reagan to run.
Bottom Line. Florida will give us more insight into whether the GOP will commit political suicide in 2012. Right now it looks as if they will, but things can change. Perhaps Rick Santorum can change the GOP race dynamic--either by winning in a huge upset, or staying in the race to--along with Newt & Ron Paul--hold Mitt under 50 percent of GOP delegates. Then a brokered convention could come to pass for the first time since 1952. Unilkely on the odds, but not impossible. And that may well be the GOP's last, best hope to defeat Obama in 2012.
Letter from the Capitol, LFTC, Conservative Politics
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