ROMNEY ROLLS

Newt's attacks backfire Big-Time....

First, the numbers: Mitt 46%, Newt 32%, Rick 13%, Ron Paul 7%.  Mitt's win was pretty near across the board, topping Newt + Rick combined.  One big number: Among voters who told exit pollsters that TV ads were a key factor in their vote, Mitt buried Newt by 55 - 28 percent, a whopping 2 to 1 margin.  But Mitt has only 87 of the 1,144 delegate votes (7.6%) needed to clinch the GOP nomination.

Mitt's victory speech featured this gem: "Mr. President, you were elected to lead; you chose to follow; and now it's time for you to get out of the way."

Bill Kristol noted three points re Florida & February: (1) the first major-state all-GOP primary had a turnout considerably lower than in 2008, suggesting lack of GOP enthusiasm; (2) February's caucuses wil select more delegates (187) than did January's contests (115); (3) Rick Santorum has a chance to pass Newt Gingrich as the not-Romney conservative alternative, albeit his chances are also a long-shot.  Also noteworthy was Mitt's big Hispanic voter number: 54-14 over Newt; he no doubt was helped by Marco Rubio's take-down of a Newt anti-Mitt re immigration ad.  But Romney's anti-illegal stance versus Newt's pro-amnesty stance did not decide the GOP Hispanic vote--in the general election, with liberal Hispanics voting it will be a factor tilting against the GOP.

Coming out of SC Newt had all the momentum, and soared 20 points in a few days after twin top debate performances and Romney's weak defense of his business record.  But Newt over-reached with personal attacks (though Mitt over-reached as well), and collapsed within a few days; he recovered somewhat in the final weekend, but nowhere near enough.  Santorum simply could not compete in a high-end TV ad market state, despite two sterling debate performances in FL.  Paul was never a factor.

Santorum needs to move past Newt in the February caucuses, to set himself as the conservative not-Mitt.  His first post-FL ad (0:59) takes dead aim at Newt at hits the bull's-eye.  He is aided by the format for the next month, which entails the kind of retail politicking that won Rick Iowa's caucus.  If Newt sags in February, his mediocre performance in FL could weaken his case and perhaps his funding too.  Michael Barone sees Mitt far from assured of winning February, due to voters having a tendency to vote for others if not enamored of a front-runner.

Bottom Line.  Mitt's back in gear, Newt needs another miracle, and Rick needs to find a way to rev it up before Super Tuesday (Mar. 6).

Letter from the Capitol, LFTC, Conservative Politics