What clues can we see for 2016?....
Latest House count: GOP 243 = +13, Ds 179; 13 seats still open. Added to the 63 House seats he lost in 2010, and he has lost more House seats in midterms than any prior president, topping Ike's 66.
For Republicans, the House exit polls show an electorate that went from a 7-point Democratic advantage in 2012 to even this year (36 percent of the electorate for each major party). Republicans won every age category over 40 years, lost women by only 5 points, won married women overwhelmingly, won the suburbs by 12 percent and the $50,000-100,000 income bracket by 10 points. Health care was the second most important issue after the economy. Republicans won 35 percent of Hispanics, who made up just 8 percent of the electorate. (In 2012, Hispanics were 10 percent of the total.) Republicans across the country ran on a tough foreign policy, opposition to the White House’s treatment of Israel, increasing defense spending and standing up to the world’s bullies. These are not Rand or Ron Paul Republicans; they are Tom Cotton Republicans.
Reuters noted comparables in gender vote metrics re '10, '12 & '14:
Republicans won 51 percent of the women's vote in the 2010 midterms, when they delivered a "shellacking" to Democrats and regained control of the House.
Democrats did better than that this year, winning women by 52 percent versus 47 percent for Republicans, according to national exit polls.
Republicans won male voters by 56 percent to 42 percent.
As in other elections, Democrats performed markedly better among non-married women, carrying them by a 22-point margin. That was not enough to offset Republicans' strong showing among married women, who they carried by 10 percentage points, and married and unmarried men.
The WSJ folks offer more metrics:
The GOP’s Senate sweep is especially impressive when you consider that they held all of their current seats, and they defeated incumbent Democrats in two states, Colorado and Iowa, that Mr. Obama carried twice. The last time the GOP defeated more than two Senate Democratic incumbents was in 1980. Majority Leader Harry Reid ’s strategy of shutting down the Senate stands repudiated.
The GOP also added to their House ranks, with a chance to have the largest Republican majority since the 1950s, and maybe the 1920s (if they hit 247 with a gain of 14 or more). That would be a cushion against potential losses in 2016 and give Speaker John Boehner more policy running room. After losing 63 seats in 2010, Mr. Obama appears to have lost more House seats for his party in midterm elections than any President since Eisenhower, who lost 66 in 1954 (18) and 1958 (48).
Karlyn Bowman of AEI presents metrics from A to Z. Noteworthy numbers I cadged: Jews were 3% of the 2014 electorate, and voted 65-23 for Ds. Rs won married women by a larger margin than Ds won unmarrieds. Young voters 18-29 were 13% of the 2014 electorate, vs. 19% in 2012; Ds won 53-42, compared to 2-1 over Romney in 2012. Oh, and one percent of voters called the economy "excellent." Second after the economy as an issue was health care; 48% said the law went too far, 25% said it did not go far enough and 21% said it was just about right. Voters were 36% R & 36% D; in recent elections Ds outnumbered Rs. Voters self-identified as 40% moderate, 37% conservative & 2% liberals. Blacks were 12% of the 2014 electorate and voted nearly 90% D.
NRO notes that Ds are at lowest state legislature levels since the 1920s: of 93 state chambers Rs control 65, Ds 23, with 1 tie & 4 undecided.
Ominously for Hillary, a majority of Arkansas voters said they do not think Hillary would be a good president.
Bottom Line. Rs had a big night and rightly can celebrate. And then they must get down to work, maneuvering against a wily president who cannot be trusted. They have the skills to do this, but as in sports the team has to execute.
Letter from the Capitol, LFTC, Economy, Conservative Politics